The $25 Billion Map: How Texas Planners Can Lead the 2030 Census

Photo Caption: Angela Broyles, Founder, President & CEO, and Jessica Thornton, Strategic Partnership Manager, representing the Texas Census Institute at the APA Texas Chapter conference.

Summary

Texas planners know addresses better than anyone, and those addresses are where the 2030 Census will be won or lost. At the American Planning Association Texas Chapter conference on October 14, Angela Broyles, Founder and CEO, and Jessica Thornton, Strategic Partnership Manager of the Texas Census Institute shared that local planners hold one of the strongest tools in census work: the address list.

Texas was one of six states undercounted in 2020, missing an estimated 550,000 residents, including 153,000 children. Across more than 350 federal programs, that undercount will cost Texas over $25 billion this decade. People are usually missed for the same reasons: homes that aren’t on the Census Bureau’s list (trailers, back houses, converted garages), low self-response, places that are hard to reach, and crowded or doubled-up households.

The fix starts with LUCA (Local Update of Census Addresses), a once-a-decade program that lets local governments update the Census Bureau’s address list before the count. Only 21% of Texas counties participated before 2020. One county that participated, Hidalgo County, worked with La Unión del Pueblo Entero and the Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council to add 14,000 addresses. These additional addresses helped count an estimated 10,000 additional households and brought in an estimated $45 million to the county. Hidalgo had no undercount in 2020.

Key Takeaways:

4 out of 5 counties did not participate in LUCA last census. Only 21% of counties took part in LUCA before 2020, and research from the National Academies ties low LUCA participation and inaccurate addresses directly to undercounts.

LUCA is a return on investment. In one Hidalgo County neighborhood, Pueblo de Palmas, more than 70% of the 199 addresses the county added were likely counted because of LUCA. That’s an extra $740,000 a year for Texas from a single neighborhood.

The window opens in 2027. Training and registration start in May 2027, and address review runs October 2027 to March 2028. Counties that start their readiness work now will be ready.