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RESEARCH BRIEF Children  |   July 2024

FUNDING IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2020 CENSUS UNDERCOUNT OF CHILDREN AND YOUNG CHILDREN IN TEXAS

In partnership with Sean Moulton from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), this research brief identifies the funding implications of the 2020 Census undercount of Texas children and young children.

By: Dr. Francisco A. Castellanos-Sosa, Texas Census Institute, Senior Research Associate
Sean Moulton, Project on Government Oversight, Senior Policy Analyst

ONE PAGERFULL REPORT

The Children’s Census Initiative

The Texas Census Institute created the Children’s Census Initiative to improve the accuracy with which the 2030 Census counts Texas children. The initiative comprises five related parts, each tackling a specific aspect of this phenomenon to enable a thorough analysis and informed decision-making. The first product of this initiative is a descriptive overview of net child undercounts in Texas counties and regions. The second product of the initiative is a detailed overview of the counties with the highest numbers and rates of net child undercount. The third product describes the net undercount of young children in Texas counties and regions. The fourth product studies the determinants of Texas child undercount. This is the fifth product of this initiative. It studies the funding implications of the 2020 Census undercount of children and young children. The Children’s Census Initiative offers valuable insights and recommendations for addressing the U.S. Census child undercount and empowers stakeholders with the knowledge for effective decision-making and action.

Research Overview

About $2.5 billion in federal funding are projected to not be distributed to Texas annually due to the census undercount in 2020 and Texas is expected to experience a $25.1 billion loss in federal funds during the decade.1 Children and young children in the state were undercounted at a 2.1% and 7.9% rate, respectively;2,3 however, little is known about the funding implications that the undercount had on federal programs from which children and young children could benefit. To close this gap, we identify the federal programs related to children and young children and estimate the potential losses by subtopics relevant to specific children and young children.

Main Findings

50 federal programs related to children and young children received $11.5 billion for their implementation in Texas in FY 2020.
Children and young children in Texas will not benefit from $341 million annually, which translates to almost $1 million every day, due to the 2020 Census undercount.
In the long term, children and young children will not benefit from $3.4 billion during a decade.
Nutrition and Education for children are the subtopics most affected by the 2020 Census undercount (with a loss of $157M+ annually).
Education and Childcare for young children are the subtopics most affected by the 2020 Census undercount (with a loss of $133M+ annually).

Concluding Remarks

Our research sheds light on the significant immediate and long-term financial implications stemming from the undercount of children and young children in the 2020 Census, particularly in the state of Texas. In the near-term, the failure to accurately account for these populations resulted in a substantial loss of federal funds—over $341 million annually and an estimated $3.4 billion over the decade. These financial losses, equivalent to nearly $1 million daily, open up a critical gap in much needed support that could have been directed toward crucial programs related to the well-being and development of children and young children and their communities.

Our analysis identifies 50 federal programs dedicated to children and young children and underscores the severity of the issue, highlighting crucial sectors such as nutrition, education, and childcare which experienced notable funding gaps for children and young children. The combined losses in these subtopics surpassed $304 million annually. The implications extend beyond mere numbers; they directly impact the cognitive, educational, social, and emotional development of children and young children, with potential long-term effects on their well-being.

As we delve into the nuanced data and funding implications, it becomes evident that targeted and comprehensive programs play a pivotal role in shaping positive outcomes for all children. Moreover, the findings emphasize the necessity of accurate census data for equitable resource distribution, especially in states like Texas with significant undercounts.

Moving forward, this research serves as a call to action for policymakers, advocacy groups, and communities to recognize the urgency of addressing undercounts and ensuring robust, inclusive programs for children and young children. The identified funding gaps are not just financial losses; they represent missed opportunities to invest in the future of our society. By leveraging these insights, we aim to inform strategies, policies, and advocacy efforts that safeguard the well-being and developmental potential of our youngest population in the years to come.

Author’s Message

The net undercount of children (age 0 to 17) and young children (age 0 to 4) in the U.S. Census is high. This study analyzes how the 2020 Census undercount of these two demographic groups could have affected the budgets of federal programs related to them. The results underscore the relevance of avoiding an undercount for these populations in the 2030 Census. 

Census-related data funding implications could go beyond the monetary implications and affect children and young children’s cognitive and educational development, social and emotional development, health and well-being, and socioeconomic opportunities.

To address the impact of an undercount, leaders may want to explore ways to compensate children and young children in counties experiencing a high undercount. Similarly, leaders in counties with a high undercount may wish to work with the Census Bureau to look for additional ways to correct the undercount of these groups in future censuses. The results shown here can be used to start building a targeted approach to increasing the count accuracy of young children in the 2030 Census.

Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the insightful support provided by Joseph J. Salvo.

FAQ

1) Why are we estimating funding implications for children and young children?

Census questionnaires are usually responded by adults. Then, undercounting a whole household would also impact children and, in particular, young children. Kids age 0 to 4 have been historically undercounted; since 1980, their undercounting has been worse census after census. While children and young children do not have a direct participation in responding to the decennial census, they could be hardly impacted the census undercount. That is why we are estimating the funding implications for children and young children; to approximate by how much these important demographic groups are being affected.

2) How accurate or precise are our funding implications by subtopic?

While there is no statistical measure of accuracy or precision for our estimates, they were built using official publicly available data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and conservative scenarios in which federal programs are affected at a similar rate to that of the undercount of children and young children.