BLOG | 2030 Census | August 2024
US Census Bureau Selects Texas for its 2026 Census Test
Last month, the U.S. Census Bureau announced six sites where they will conduct the 2026 Census Test, the first of two major on-the-ground experiments in preparation for the 2030 Census. These are an opportunity for the Bureau, in partnership with the sites, to pilot innovative technologies with the goal of improving national and regional census activities.
In the Bureau’s words:
“Conducting testing…gives us the opportunity to explore innovative technologies and methodologies to enhance our work to conduct a complete and accurate count of the nation.”
Of particular note, the Bureau selected four counties identified as Western Texas (Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Presidio) in what the Texas Comptroller calls the Upper Rio Grande and West Texas regions to conduct the 2026 Census Test.
The figure below shows the criteria used by the Bureau to select sites and how Western Texas fits compared to the other sites selected. Overall, the Bureau evaluated locations based on geography, type of living quarters, local staffing challenges and technology. In Western Texas, the four counties demonstrated eligibility in terms of being a rural area with historically undercounted populations and lower self-response rates, the presence of a colonia, nonmailable addresses, seasonally vacant housing, and little to no cell phone or internet service.
What do the Western Texas counties have in common with other Texas counties?
To understand if and how the 2026 Census Test could contribute to the challenges of counting other parts of the state, the Texas Census Institute developed a simple test to verify if, on average, Western Texas differs from the following groups of counties:
The remaining 250 Texas counties
The other 11 counties on the US-Mexico Border
The four counties in the Rio Grande Valley
The test provides three different results. It is possible to know if, on average, Western Texas:
Is equal (signaled with an = symbol in the table below) to the other group of counties
Has a higher value of the variable in comparison to the other group (signaled with a < symbol in the table below)
Has a lower value of the variable in comparison to the other group (signaled with a > symbol in the table below)
Key Findings
When compared to the Rest of Texas counties:
The undercount of young children is worse in Western Texas.
Population in low self-response tracts is the same in Western Texas.
The share of people in rural conditions is the same in Western Texas.
The share of Hispanic people and young children is higher in Western Texas.
The share of foreign-born and non-citizen people is higher in Western Texas.
The share of people and families in poverty is higher in Western Texas.
The share of 18+ people with a computer and no internet is higher in Western Texas.
When compared to the Rest of the US-Mexico border counties:
The undercount of young children is the same in Western Texas.
Population in low self-response tracts is the same in Western Texas.
The share of people in rural conditions is higher in Western Texas.
The share of Hispanic people and young children is lower in Western Texas.
The share of foreign-born and non-citizen people is the same in Western Texas.
The share of people and families in poverty is the same in Western Texas.
The share of 18+ people with a computer and no internet is the same in Western Texas.
When compared to RGV counties:
The undercount of young children is the same in Western Texas.
Population in low self-response tracts is the same in Western Texas.
The share of people in rural conditions is higher in Western Texas.
The share of Hispanic people and young children is lower in Western Texas.
The share of foreign-born and non-citizen people is the same in Western Texas.
The share of people and families in poverty is the same in Western Texas.
The share of 18+ people with a computer and no internet is the same in Western Texas.
What is the significance of these findings?
If the Western Texas counties are, on average, similar to other counties, they can serve as a testing ground for strategies to improve census activities in Texas.
If the Western Texas counties are, on average, different (either higher or lower) compared to other counties, the U.S. Census Bureau would have the chance to understand a specific phenomenon under unique circumstances but the findings might be less applicable to the rest of the state.
For instance, the undercount of young children has a statistically lower average in the Western Texas Counties compared to the other 11 counties on the US-Mexico border. Note that a lower value, in this case, equals a worse undercount. Therefore, the Western Texas Counties would provide a scenario where a relevant problem, like the undercount of young children, is intense (35.1% in Presidio, 17.9% in Pecos, and 12.6% in Brewster). Then, the U.S. Census Bureau will have the chance to test new technologies and methodologies under a scenario where the undercount and overcount of young children is extreme.
To learn more about the undercount in Texas and its implications for our economy, explore our latest Research and Dashboard.
The Texas Census Institute provides independent, nonpartisan, data-driven, and trusted census policy and program guidance that encourages census participation so that all Texans can enjoy a high quality of life. For more information or to join our efforts, visit texascensus.org.
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